Everyone wants a date for the AI bubble bursting, and nobody has one. A new piece from The Verge pushes back on the question itself, with the author noting that colleagues and readers alike keep asking — with varying degrees of excitement or trepidation — when the crash is coming. The answer: anyone who actually knew would be too busy getting rich off the knowledge to share it.

The frustration is understandable on both sides. AI valuations, infrastructure spending, and debt financing have reached levels that invite comparisons to past manias, and the piece's framing — referencing bond-market players like PIMCO and Apollo — points to where the anxiety has migrated: from equity hype to the credit markets quietly funding the buildout.

But timing a bubble is a different problem from identifying one. Markets stayed irrational through years of dot-com warnings before the 2000 crash, and plenty of predicted collapses never arrived at all. The honest position, the piece suggests, is uncertainty: the structural questions about AI spending are legitimate, the exact moment of reckoning is unknowable, and anyone selling a confident date is selling something.